Megatours Facing A Creaky Future

Ozzfest remains one of rock's biggest juggernauts.

Generating almost $20 million a year in ticket sales - in addition to a lucrative mini-industry of souvenirs, merchandise and related CDs and DVDs - the heavy-metal music fest ranks among the top-selling tours in the nation.

But this year, Ozzy Osbourne and his tour are confronting an uncomfortable reality: rust. It's unclear how many more years he can stay with the tour. The $3-billion-a-year concert industry is worried about Ozzy and all his contemporaries, too.

This summer, many of the big-name tours are led by people eligible for AARP membership: Tom Petty is 55, Jimmy Buffett is 59, Eric Clapton and Pete Townshend are both 61. Madonna, whose tour is the hottest so far this year, is 47.

Last year, according to the concert trade journal Pollstar, six of the 10 highest-grossing tours starred artists in their late 50s or 60s, among them the Rolling Stones and Elton John. Those six accounted for more than $470 million in domestic ticket sales - about 30 percent of the total for the year's 50 biggest tours.

But keeping those guys on the road gets harder every year, with more canceled performances and more Bengay.

U2, Metallica and Prince, who made it big in the '80s, seem to be going strong. After them, though, it's a precipitous drop-off to the next tier of younger performers. Dave Matthews Band, Coldplay and Radiohead are often discussed as successors; Green Day and upstarts the Killers also are mentioned. None, however, can draw mass audiences at premium prices the way the older acts do.

"Eventually, we're going to run out of headliners," said Randy Phillips, CEO of the concert promoter AEG Live.

Accounting for the shallow talent pool, some industry executives cite the effects of MTV, which lets fans see performers without ever leaving their couch. Others blame a recording industry more focused on disposable hits than long-term career development. Whatever the case, John Scher, the New York music promoter and entrepreneur, says that unless the industry's dynamics change, many of the nation's big summer music venues "will be plowed over and be made into housing projects."

Many fans - and rival concert organizers - attribute Ozzfest's staying power to its mix. A daylong affair featuring 20 bands, it combines established rock acts that have older fans with up-and-coming metal talent that sways a fervent younger audience.

But the numbers are already slipping: Roughly 431,000 fans purchased tickets last year, down from almost 575,000 in 2001, according to data from Pollstar, and tickets to shows Ozzy Osbourne is skipping generally go for less than those he intends to play (he's not in the Phoenix lineup).

Until anyone comes up with a better model, or a new roster of proven performers, the industry's war horses are doing their best to keep going.

• Kiss no longer rocks and rolls all night. "They definitely take more ibuprofen than cocaine," band manager Doc McGhee says.

• Aerosmith has made regular use of a nutritionist.

• According to the Smoking Gun Web site, James Taylor, 58, wants his band's hospitality room stocked with packets of Emergen-C powder.

• The Beach Boys require a licensed masseur qualified in either Swedish or Oriental deep-tissue massage.

Source: http://www.azcentral.com