There are 108 categories, with no less than five nominees per category, for Wednesday night's Grammy Awards, a bloated program that every year adds a new category or two in the hopes that there may finally be room for even Ashlee Simpson to be nominated.
Now I'm supposed to tell you who's going to win so you can rake in some bucks at your office pool. And since no one is actually going to watch the traditionally tedious Grammy telecast -- American Idol and Lost air at the same time this year -- this service may prove invaluable. But do you know what the odds are of correctly predicting who will win in each and every one of these categories?
Neither do I -- must be a huge figure, and that's why I write instead of gamble for a living, even though the hours would be better and the co-workers more colorful at a casino.All is not lost, however. I haven't missed a Grammy Awards telecast since 1974, which suggests I need a life but also makes me somewhat qualified to prognosticate a bit on likely losers and winners, given I've seen a pattern in how these things have gone before.
Wrong. Dunderheaded. Stupid.
Here's one: Remember Steely Dan beating Eminem for Album of the Year in 2000? I could give you more -- many more -- but you get the idea. The saddest thing is, I wasn't shocked. Folks in The Recording Academy, who pick these things, have valiantly tried to prove how hip and timely they are after decades of honoring the likes of Christopher Cross, Milli Vanilli, A Taste of Honey and the O Brother, Where Art Thou? soundtrack by nominating in major fields more relevant artists like lightning-rod rapper Eminem -- even though he didn't win the top prize.
This year the academy has so honored hotshots or hipsters like Kanye West, Gorillaz, Green Day and Gwen Stefani for its biggest awards. But with a couple exceptions -- OutKast, for instance -- when it's time to pick a winner, the Album, Record or Song of the Year award often goes to an overdue but outdated veteran or a newcomer like Norah Jones who sounds old-school.
This could happen again Wednesday night. Paul McCartney, who has won Grammys for his work with The Beatles but, along with poor Ringo, is the only other Beatle never to win the coveted Album of the Year trophy on his own, could upset and take the prize over bigger hits from West, Mariah Carey, Stefani and U2.
Call it the Steely Dan Factor.
Call it a crock.
Call it and win your betting pool.
Just don't call me if few of these predictions come true.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
We Belong Together, Mariah Carey; Feel Good Inc., Gorillaz featuring De La Soul; Boulevard of Broken Dreams, Green Day; Hollaback Girl, Gwen Stefani; Gold Digger, Kanye West.
Who wins: Gold Digger, with its unshakeable hook, along with its critical and commercial acceptance, seems unstoppable.
Who's robbed: Green Day. Boulevard was the multiformat smash of the year, topping airplay on pop, rock, modern rock and Adult Top 40 stations across the country. More important, it's exceptionally well crafted.
SONG (award goes to the composer)
Bless the Broken Road, Bobby Boyd, Jeff Hanna & Marcus Hummon, (Rascal Flatts); Devils & Dust, Bruce Springsteen; Ordinary People, W. Adams & J. Stephens, (John Legend); Sometimes You Can't Make It on Your Own, U2; We Belong Together, J. Austin, M. Carey, J. Dupri & M. Seal, D. Bristol, K. Edmonds, S. Johnson, P. Moten, S. Sully & B. Womack, (Mariah Carey).
Who wins: If all those people who supposedly wrote Carey's tune vote, We Belong Together wins by sheer numbers. Springsteen's stark Devils could upset.
Who's robbed: The songwriters behind Lee Ann Womack's new country standard, the foolishly ignored I May Hate Myself in the Morning.
ALBUM
The Emancipation of Mimi, Mariah Carey; Chaos and Creation in the Backyard, Paul McCartney; Love. Angel. Music. Baby., Gwen Stefani; How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb, U2; Late Registration, Kanye West.
Who wins: McCartney's most boring album since . . . well, his last boring album, nonetheless earned the icon his best reviews in decades. Not that critics vote. But The Steely Dan Factor (explained above) looms, denying the cocky West bragging rights here. Close call, though. Grammy voters denied West this award last year for College Dropout and may feel he's bided his time long enough.
Who's robbed: Stefani's album is a lot of fun, but it's not weighty enough for this category. Carey, proud mother of 2005's bestselling CD, got her award at the cash register and, admit it, the CD's mediocre. U2 would have won this at one point, but Bomb, released in November 2004, just one month into the eligibility period of October 2004 through September 2005, has seen its momentum fizzle.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Ciara, Fall Out Boy, Keane, John Legend, SugarLand.
Who wins: If the academy liked Legend enough to shower him with eight nominations, putting him out front with West and Carey, he has to be a sure bet here.
Who's robbed: Where's Raul Midón? The former South Florida musician's State of Mind CD didn't ignite or fully showcase his brilliance, but he's a major talent -- a trait I don't hear from anyone in this lackluster lineup.
FEMALE POP VOCAL
It's Like That, Mariah Carey; Since U Been Gone, Kelly Clarkson; Good Is Good, Sheryl Crow; I Will Not Be Broken, Bonnie Raitt; Hollaback Girl, Gwen Stefani.
Who wins: From American Idol to Grammy winner, Kelly Clarkson.
Who's robbed: Shockingly, no one. The Idol delivered the goods on this undeniably catchy pop/rocker.
MALE POP VOCAL
Sitting, Waiting, Wishing, Jack Johnson; Fine Line, Paul McCartney; Walk on By, Seal; Lonely No More, Rob Thomas; From the Bottom of My Heart, Stevie Wonder.
Who wins: From the bottom of my heart, if the overly rewarded Wonder wins for this soggy banality I will go martial on the academy. I may not have to: Thomas' universally liked Lonely No More should find the Matchbox 20 frontman lonely no more.
Who's robbed: If Thomas wins in this lame field, no one.
POP DUO OR GROUP
Don't Lie, The Black Eyed Peas; Mr. Brightside, The Killers; More Than Love, Los Lonely Boys; This Love, Maroon 5; My Doorbell, The White Stripes.
Who wins: Isn't this Maroon 5 song, like, 10 years old already? Sure feels that way.
Who's robbed: The Killers' retro blast.
SOLO ROCK VOCAL
Revolution, Eric Clapton; Shine It All Around, Robert Plant; Devils & Dust, Bruce Springsteen; This Is How a Heart Breaks, Rob Thomas; The Painter, Neil Young.
Who wins: Springsteen.
Who's robbed: Plant.
ROCK DUO OR GROUP
Speed of Sound, Coldplay; Best of You, Foo Fighters; Do You Want To, Franz Ferdinand; All These Things That I've Done, The Killers; Sometimes You Can't Make It on Your Own, U2.
Who wins: U2.
Who's robbed: Franz Ferdinand is fresher.
ROCK ALBUM
X&Y, Coldplay; In Your Honor, Foo Fighters; A Bigger Bang, The Rolling Stones; How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb, U2; Prairie Wind, Neil Young.
Who wins: Coldplay leaves me cold, but I'm not voting. This is the one the British band, snubbed in the major fields, takes home.
Who's robbed: The Stones delivered a classic, but it sputtered commercially. Pity.
FEMALE R&B VOCAL
1 Thing, Amerie; Wishing on a Star, Beyoncé; We Belong Together, Mariah Carey; Free Yourself, Fantasia; Unbreakable, Alicia Keys.
Who wins: Carey's comeback was hyped as ''The Return of the Voice.'' It wasn't. But Grammy folks are easily fooled.
Who's robbed: Ah, hell, I'll be a good sport. No one's robbed. Let Carey have it.
MALE R&B VOCAL
Creepin', Jamie Foxx; Ordinary People, John Legend; Let Me Love You, Mario; Superstar, Usher; So What the Fuss, Stevie Wonder.
Who wins: Legend, for his simple ballad, and he deserves it.
R&B DUO OR GROUP
So Amazing, Beyoncé & Stevie Wonder; Cater 2 U, Destiny's Child; If This World Were Mine, Alicia Keys featuring Jermaine Paul; So High, John Legend featuring Lauryn Hill; How Will I Know, Stevie Wonder featuring Aisha Morris.
Who wins: Stevie Wonder singing with his daughter Aisha -- nearly 30 years ago she was the little baby heard splashing in the tub on Isn't She Lovely -- are a sentimental twosome that will prove hard to beat.
Who's robbed: Stevie Wonder and India.Arie, for the superior A Time to Love track that should have been here instead of the insipid Destiny's Child song, which set women's rights back four decades.
R&B ALBUM
Illumination, Earth, Wind and Fire; Free Yourself, Fantasia; Unplugged, Alicia Keys; Get Lifted, John Legend; A Time to Love, Stevie Wonder.
Who wins: Legend.
Who's robbed: If Wonder's entire album had been up to par he would deserve this over Legend, who obviously studied from the master. But Wonder's CD was a mixed bag.
RAP SOLO
Testify, Common; Mockingbird, Eminem; Disco Inferno, 50 Cent; Number One Spot, Ludacris; U Don't Know Me, T.I.; Gold Digger, Kanye West.
Who wins: West has already anointed himself Jesus on the cover of the latest Rolling Stone. And he's pontificated that his Gold Digger is the best rap song of the year and should have been included in that category. Will Grammy deny God?
Who's robbed: I'm not denying the deity, either.
RAP DUO OR GROUP
Don't Phunk With My Heart, The Black Eyed Peas; The Corner, Common featuring The Last Poets; Encore, Eminem featuring Dr. Dre & 50 Cent; Hate It or Love It, The Game featuring 50 Cent; Wait (The Whisper Song), Ying Yang Twins.
Who wins: Black Eyed Peas, a guilty pleasure, at best, but catchy and creative.
Who's robbed: Common has justifiable critical clout, but I'm with the Peas, too.
RAP ALBUM
Be, Common; The Cookbook, Missy Elliott; Encore, Eminem; The Massacre, 50 Cent; Late Registration, Kanye West.
Who wins: No competition. Jesus, er, Kanye, gets it. Missy, Eminem and Fiddy just offered more of the same. Common isn't hot enough.
Who's robbed: I'd actually like to see Common win, but forget it.
FEMALE COUNTRY VOCAL
The Connection, Emmylou Harris; Mississippi Girl, Faith Hill; All Jacked Up, Gretchen Wilson; I May Hate Myself in the Morning, Lee Ann Womack; Georgia Rain, Trisha Yearwood.
Who wins: Hill's tentative return to country, after flirting with overblown pop, counts as a minor comeback. Grammy likes that. Plus, her previous victories in this category also give her a higher profile. Given how clueless the academy is concerning country music, that's all that will matter.
Who's robbed: Womack may hate the academy in the morning. And I wouldn't blame her.
MALE COUNTRY VOCAL
Funny How Time Slips Away, George Jones; As Good As I Once Was, Toby Keith; Midnight Communion, Delbert McClinton; Good Ol' Boys, Willie Nelson; Alcohol, Brad Paisley; You'll Think of Me, Keith Urban.
Who wins: George Jones, for remaking an oldie, or Nelson for the single worst recorded performance of his long career are likely picks. Why? Grammy knows nothing about country and everyone has at least heard of these legends. Still, Nashville is so behind Urban and his relationship with Oscar-winner Nicole Kidman ups his cachet, allowing the undeserving Urban to eke out a win.
Who's robbed: Keith. He may rub people wrong but his song was amusing, clever and expertly delivered.
COUNTRY DUO OR GROUP
Comin' to Your City, Big & Rich; Play Something Country, Brooks & Dunn; I Hope, Dixie Chicks; Restless, Alison Krauss and Union Station; Bless the Broken Road, Rascal Flatts.
Who wins: Rascal Flatts, for its very popular ballad.
Who's robbed: With the exception of the highly irritating Big & Rich, everyone else is robbed. The bathetic Rascal Flatts is the two-word answer to the question: Why do some people hate country music?
COUNTRY ALBUM
Fireflies, Faith Hill; Lonely Runs Both Ways, Alison Krauss and Union Station; Time Well Wasted, Brad Paisley; All Jacked Up, Gretchen Wilson; Jasper County, Trisha Yearwood.
Who wins: Krauss is Grammy's most honored female artist -- look it up, 17 wins.
Who's robbed: Lee Ann Womack's Country Music Association-winning Album of the Year There's More Where That Came From is not good enough for Grammy? Are they nuts? Forget country. It was one of the best albums of 2005, period.
Source: http://www.miami.com
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