USA Presidential Election 2008 [Daily News]

[Maldini]

Obama, Huckabee sweep to Iowa victories

 

By JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press Writer

 

CONCORD, N.H. - New Hampshire is where Iowa's Democratic caucus victors get ratified and where its Republican winners get stung. Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee headed into the Granite State on Friday as Iowa's presidential champions, one hoping to ride history's trend and the other eager to break it. Neither can expect it to be easy.

 

Obama is neck and neck in New Hampshire polls with Hillary Rodham Clinton, who finished third in Iowa but has the resources to confront him head on. Will Obama, like Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, use his Iowa victory to catapult himself to victory in New Hampshire? Or will Clinton manufacture a turnaround like her husband did in 1992 and be the new Comeback Kid?

 

Huckabee faces even bigger questions. He has hardly campaigned in New

Hampshire where a Republican contest is already in a dead heat between Mitt Romney and John McCain. He enters the state with little money and little time to mount an adequate come-from-behind surge.

 

Iowa's results tightened the Democratic field — Sens. Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd dropped out shortly after the outcome was clear Thursday night. John Edwards mounted an energetic, populist campaign only to see himself repeat his 2004 second place finish in Iowa. He vowed to continue, but he trails Obama and Clinton in polls and in money.

 

For Republicans, Huckabee's victory served to keep their contest wide open.

 

He beat Romney by nearly 9 percentage points, a setback for the former Massachusetts governor who now faces a reinvigorated McCain. Fred Thompson was looking beyond New Hampshire to South Carolina. And Rudy Giuliani, fading in New Hampshire, was counting on Florida and big state contests on Feb. 5.

 

An unpredictable factor could be Republican Ron Paul, an anti-war congressman with libertarian views whose legions of volunteers have fanned out across New Hampshire waving placards and knocking on doors in support of their dark horse candidate. Paul has raised a surprising amount of money, further complicating the political calculations in the state.

 

In their victory speeches, Obama and Huckabee struck similar cords and distinguished themselves from their respective fields — portraying themselves as unifiers and change agents who didn't view the world in simply Republican and Democratic hues.

 

"You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that's consumed Washington," Obama told his raucous supporters. "To end the political strategy that's been all about division, and instead make it about addition. To build a coalition for change that stretches through red states and blue states. Because that's how we'll win in November, and that's how we'll finally meet the challenges that we face as a nation."

 

Huckabee, sounding some of the same economic populist themes that Democrats had often heard from Edwards, said Americans were eager for change.

 

"But what they want is a change that starts with a challenge to those of us who were given this sacred trust of office so that we recognize that what our challenge is to bring this country back together, to make Americans, once again, more proud to be Americans than just to be Democrats or Republicans," he said. "To be more concerned about being going up instead of just going to the left or to the right."

 

Money, a defining measure of candidate strength throughout 2007, turned out to be not so determinative in Iowa. Romney, a multimillionaire who pumped more than $17 million of his own money into the campaign by September, spent about $7 million on ads in Iowa to Huckabee's $1.4 million.

 

Likewise, Edwards remained in the mix with Obama and Clinton even though they broke all fundraising records last year. Obama spent $9 million in television ads in Iowa, Clinton spent $7 million and Edwards spent only $3 million.

 

Romney's and Clinton's inability to win was also a blow to much of the Democratic and Republican party establishment that had lined up behind both candidates.

 

But if money was only secondary in Iowa, it could still be a factor ahead. Romney could tap his wealth again to carry him through New Hampshire and Michigan thereafter. And with Obama and Clinton at the top, the Democratic contest appears to be dominated by two financial titans.

 

As Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle said after the results were in: "Our campaign was built for a marathon and we have the resources to run a national race in the weeks ahead."

 

Polls of Iowa voters as they entered the caucuses showed that Obama outpolled Clinton among women, and benefited from a surge in first-time caucus-goers and young voters in what was a record Democratic turnout. Similar enthusiasm in New Hampshire could again favor Obama.

 

Huckabee rode to victory on the strength of born-again or evangelical Christians, who comprised six in 10 Republican caucus-goers. But New Hampshire's Republican electorate is less overtly religious and more fiscally conservative. Even so, Huckabee has a penchant for retail politics and offers a message that is not singularly religious in tone.

 

 

"The thing you can say about Mike Huckabee is that he has a very different coalition," said Charlie Arlinghaus, a longtime New Hampshire GOP strategist and senior adviser to Thompson. "Giuliani's support comes from moderates and Romney's from conservatives. But Huckabee crosses a lot of lines — socially conservative and economically populist. That's why he was underestimated."

 

While Huckabee's victory over Romney heartened McCain, Obama's win could work against him under New Hampshire's wide open voting system. Obama is likely to attract many Democratic-leaning independents who might have voted for McCain if it appeared that Clinton had sewn up the Democratic contest.

"We now have competitive contests on both sides," said New Hampshire GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen. "That could be good news for Romney, who has been counting on this being a primary that is dominated by base Republicans."

[Maldini]

Clinton unbowed by third-place finish

 

By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer

 

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, claiming to be unbowed by a third-place finish in the Iowa Democratic caucuses, hailed a "great night for Democrats" and said the strong turnout pointed to the sure election of a Democratic president in November. She said she would "keep pushing as hard as we can."

 

But her poor showing here was a searing blow to the former first lady, dissolving her image as her party's inevitable nominee and setting up a critical five-day race to Tuesday's leadoff primary in New Hampshire.

 

Clinton told cheering supporters that she had congratulated caucus winner Sen. Barack Obama and the second-place finisher, former Sen. John Edwards.

 

She promised to take "this enthusiasm and go tonight to New Hampshire."

 

"We're going to keep pushing as hard as we can," she said, with former President Bill Clinton and their daughter Chelsea at her side. "I am so ready for the rest of this campaign and I am so ready to lead."

 

Iowa Democrats delivered a cautionary tale to the New York senator, an established figure on the public stage who is running to be the first woman president.

 

Caucus goers appeared to reject the central premise of Clinton's candidacy, favoring Obama's message of hope and change over her theme of experience and leadership.

 

More troubling still was her performance among key groups that had been expected to form the core of her support.

 

Entrance polls in the state showed Obama narrowly beating Clinton among women voters, whom her campaign had expected to turn out in large numbers to support her pioneering quest. She also failed to win a majority of voters who called health care their chief concern, despite her long association with the issue.

 

Her candidacy also was swamped by a surge of first-time caucus goers who soundly supported Obama. Projections showed a turnout of 230,000 for Democrats, compared to 124,000 who showed up for Democratic caucuses in 2004. The turnout was nearly twice as large as for the Republicans, whose turnout also was up from four years ago.

 

Clinton stuck with familiar themes in her concession speech, telling supporters she felt confident New Hampshire voters would choose a candidate "who will be able to go the distance and who will be ready on Day One."

 

She was flying to New Hampshire late Thursday night and planned to attend a campaign rally with her husband Friday morning. All the remaining Democratic contenders were to meet in a nationally televised debate Saturday.

[Black Rose]

The start of the long race to get the public opinions on whom should run for the real thing.

[GazeboflossUK]

Yeah, but IOWA isn't the big deal the media make it out to be. Sure, it's the first stop on a long journey for all but it's more about TV ratings than anything else.

 

I mean Giuliani (the dirty rat he is) was the national frontrunner yet he finished 6th out of 7 on the GOP side. And Reagan didn't even win IOWA.

 

However, it is interesting to see the reactions of all the candidates.

[berrywoman]

there hasn't been any president in the past say 50 years that won Iowa and won the actual election.... but in all reality.. this state does matter. It just goes to show you how many people actually do get out and vote on a national level. How a little town in Iowa can show in relation the an entire nation.... its pretty impressive. I think no matter what, people will come out and vote in record numbers this year. I mean, how can you not!! lol

[Maldini]

IOWA

Democratic Party

1-Barack Obama: 37.6%

2-John Edwards: 29.75%

3-Hillary Clinton: 29.47%

Republican Party

1-

Mike Huckabee: 31%

2-Mitt Romney: 25%

[Black Rose]

Not a good night for Ron Paul then

[Maldini]

McCain, Obama new focus of rivals in NH

 

By JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press Writer

 

CONCORD, N.H. - The wounded contenders of Iowa took on the presumed leaders of the pack in the New Hampshire presidential primary campaign on Friday, disparaging John McCain as a creature of Washington and signaling that Barack Obama's mantle as the agent of change is ripe for challenge, too.

 

"It will be a different race here," Mitt Romney vowed, bidding to keep his GOP campaign viable. His immediate difference: switching the focus of his criticism from the Iowa winner, Mike Huckabee, to McCain, the Arizona senator staging a 2008 revival in the state he won in 2000. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton made clear she considered Obama's positions fair game for criticism.

 

"It's hard to know exactly where he stands and people need to ask that," she said. "I think everybody is supposed to be vetted and tested."

 

Obama, the Illinois senator who punctured Clinton's front-runner status in his convincing Iowa win, appealed to New Hampshire's famously unaligned voters as he invited independents and Republicans into his fold. He borrowed language from McCain, a favorite of New Hampshire's independent voters eight years ago — and, McCain hopes, again now.

 

"If you know who you are, if you know what you believe in, if you know your principles, if you know what you are fighting for, then you can reach out those you don't agree with," Obama told a crowd of more than 1,500, including students, at a Concord high school. "If they are Republicans and independents who are working with me, that makes us stronger."

 

Then, lifting McCain's catch phrase, he added: "We need someone who exercises straight talk instead of spin."

 

He implicitly scolded his two main rivals — Clinton and John Edwards — who have suggested that Obama's conciliatory language is naive and "too nice."

"There's no shortage of anger in Washington people," he said. "We don't need more heat, we need more light."

 

Romney attributed Huckabee's Iowa win largely to his background as a Southern Baptist preacher in a state with a decisive bloc of evangelical voters, an element missing in New Hampshire. "It was a wonderful strategy that he pursued effectively," he said. "I don't think that's the strategy that's going to work in every state."

 

In any event, New Hampshire presented a different political alignment, with precious little time for candidates to remake their campaigns and adapt. McCain and Romney have been neck and neck here in pre-Iowa surveys, with Huckabee lagging, while Clinton and Obama have topped polls on the Democratic side.

 

Romney said the message coming out of Iowa was a hunger for change and contended he, not the longtime Arizona senator, could make that happen.

"There's no way Senator McCain can come to New Hampshire and say he can be the candidate to change Washington," the former Massachusetts governor said. "He is Washington."

 

McCain called Romney's attacks against Huckabee in Iowa "a little bit desperate. It didn't work in Iowa, I don't think it will work in New Hampshire."

Stopping in the eye-care section of the Hollis (N.H.) Pharmacy, surrounded by supporters, McCain recalled his early pressure on the Bush administration to put more troops in Iraq as one example of a career devoted to changing Washington's ways.

 

"I'm most proud of the change I brought about in Iraq that saved American lives," McCain said. "No one else was ready to make that kind of reform. I'm proud to stand here as a person who has reformed and reformed and reformed."

 

Clinton hoped to become her family's newest "Comeback Kid" in a state that revived Bill Clinton's run for the Democratic nomination in 1992.

She promised a rally at the Nashua airport that she would answer as many questions as possible about her candidacy in the short run to the primary, and addressed several about her electability after her Iowa defeat.

 

 

"Anyone we nominate will be thrown into that blazing inferno of a general election," she said. "I've been through the fires, and it makes it far less likely they are going to be able to do to me what they intend to do to whomever we nominate." She was traveling through the state in a lavishly painted campaign bus bearing her latest slogan: "Big Challenges, Real Solutions — Time to Pick a President."

 

Fond words about grass-roots politicking with Iowans and their caucus meetings seemed distant, just a day after the event, as she cast the New Hampshire primary Tuesday as a truer expression of democracy.

 

"This is a primary election," she said. "You're not disenfranchised if you work at night. You actually can come out and vote. You're not disenfranchised if you're not in the state. You can actually send in an absentee ballot. So this is going to be a much more representative electorate because we've got people who are going to be able to express opinions in the way we run elections in America."

 

Huckabee, on the morning talk shows, pitched his tax plan to anti-tax New Hampshire Republicans, and asserted his campaign is about much more than the Christian conservatives who lifted him in Iowa. "What we're seeing is that this campaign is not just about people who have religious fervor," he said.

 

"It's about people who love America, but want it to be better and believe that change is necessary and it's not going to happen from within Washington."

 

Iowa's results tightened the Democratic field — Sens. Joe Biden and

Christopher Dodd dropped out shortly after the outcome was clear Thursday night. Edwards mounted an energetic, populist campaign only to see himself repeat his 2004 second place finish in Iowa. He vowed to continue, but he trails Obama and Clinton in polls and in money. Clinton sank to third.

Edwards portrayed the Democratic race as one between Obama and him.

 

"People are going to decide between a candidate who is not the candidate of money, not the candidate of the status quo, but somebody who will actually fight for the changes we need, and it will be between Senator Obama and myself," he said.

 

On the Republican side, Huckabee enters New Hampshire with little money and little time to mount an adequate come-from-behind surge. And tradition pulls against him. George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole in 1988 and 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000 — all are Iowa caucus winners who lost their New Hampshire primaries.

 

Huckabee's Iowa victory served to keep the GOP contest wide open. He won by 9 percentage points and Romney now faces a reinvigorated McCain. Fred Thompson was looking beyond New Hampshire to South Carolina. And Rudy Giuliani, fading in New Hampshire, was counting on Florida and big state contests on Feb. 5.

In Iowa, Thompson held on to a third-place finish over by McCain by fewer than 300 votes, with 96 percent of GOP precincts reporting. McCain spent little time or money there, investing his early hopes in New Hampshire.

[Maldini]

Not a good night for Ron Paul then

 

But it's too early to the whole race

[Maldini]

Iowa Behind Her, Clinton Campaign in a State of Urgency

 

by FOXNews.com

Friday, January 4, 2008

 

Hillary Clinton waves as she campaigns with her daughter Chelsea following a campaign stop at a cafe in Manchester, N.H., Friday.(AP Photo)

It’s not time for Hillary Clinton to start panicking yet, but the candidate soared into New Hampshire in the wee hours of Friday morning following a third-place finish in Iowa with a fresh sense of urgency swirling about the campaign.

 

Though even her husband had played down expections prior to Iowa, her finish 8 points behind rival Barack Obama Thursday night was a wake-up call for Clinton, who from day one has been pegged the inevitable Democratic nominee. She’s still the well-funded candidate with the rock-star husband and a deep, national network of supporters – but the results from both the Democratic and Republican caucuses, where once-dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee sailed to victory over millionaire businessman Mitt Romney, were a sign that deep pockets and deep political roots aren’t the only asset in 2008.

 

As Obama rode to victory on the message of hope and change, Clinton seemed to adopt that rhetoric. On Friday she seemed to even adopt strains of rival John Edwards’ economic populism, bemoaning the reported .3 percent jump in the unemployment rate.

 

“I want to know from all of you … what do you want to know about us?” she said Friday. “Who will be the best president based not on a leap of faith but on the kind of changes we’ve already produced?”

The New York senator spoke at a freezing airplane hangar in Nashua, N.H., to a throng of enthusiastic supporters who held signs that said simply, “Ready.”

 

In an e-mail sent out Friday morning, the Clinton campaign said: “We’ve got more work to do.”

 

Asking for contributions, the memo still stressed her experience and presumed long-term political viability against the GOP nominee:

“With your help, we can make it clear that the Democratic Party needs a nominee who can go the distance in a long, challenging campaign to win the White House, and that the American people need a president who can be an effective champion for them on day one,” it said.

 

Clinton spokesman Jay Carson told reporters that they’re ready to fight nationwide, and sought to minimize the perceived impact of Iowa.

 

“We went from being very, very, very far behind when she started this race in January to turning out a lot of people. And we brought a lot of new people into the process,” he said. “I think judging the entire nominating process on 8 percent of the population of one state is a dubious exercise.

 

“We’re going to continue to fight on, and we’re going to fight on in also the states across the country. We’re going to fight on in New Hampshire, and South Carolina and Nevada, then all the states on February 5.”

 

But the Clinton message may begin to incorporate more humanizing themes, outside those showing she’s simply spent a lot of time in Washington.

 

FOX News entrance polling ahead before the Democratic caucusing indicated that 52 percent of Iowa voters were more concerned with electing a candidate who could “bring about needed change” than seeking one with the “right experience.” This far outweighed what had been believed to be Clinton’s strong suit, which 20 percent of the caucus-goers said was most important to them.

 

The preference, along with a massive turnout of Democratic voters, resulted in the blow to the Clinton campaign, which has long been hailing the senator’s 35-year political career, including eight years as first lady, as superior credentials over her rivals for the White House.

As if already picking up on that point at the end of the evening, in a speech to supporters at the end of the evening, Clinton immediately began speaking about “change.”

 

“We have seen an unprecedented turnout here in Iowa. And that is good news, because today we’re sending a clear message: that we are going to have change, and that change will be a Democratic president in the White House in 2009,” she said to cheers. “I am so proud to have run with such exceptional candidates … together we have presented the case for change and have made it absolutely clear that America needs a new beginning.”

Obama in his victory speech fervently started hitting those themes, claiming them as his own.

 

“We are choosing hope over fear, we’re choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America,” he said.

Off-stage, political analysts were parsing out just what happened to the candidate who just a few months ago was considered to have a near lock on the nomination.

 

Heavy turnout is believed to have led to some of the disappointment, as analysts had predicted early on that the more people who showed up at the Iowa precincts, the better the opportunities for the perceived outsiders, Obama and Edwards. Iowa Democratic party officials reported that with 99.2 percent of the precincts reporting, 236,000 attended the caucuses.

According to campaign sources who spoke with FOX News, Clinton’s team believed, early on, that the turnout would not exceed more than 150,000. By the end of the evening, Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee acknowledged that turnout could end up being more than 200,000.

He otherwise kept the outlook bright.

 

“As the boss said earlier, today is just the beginning. It’s not the end. Tomorrow you hit reset and you start all over again in New Hampshire and you run hard for five days,” he said.

 

As the country’s first, most viable woman candidate for president, it is probably most surprising that Obama did better among female voters in the entrance polling, 35 percent to 30 percent.

 

David Yepsen, political columnist for the Des Moines Register, told FOX News that he believed Clinton had failed to get a cogent message out to the voters, despite a huge operational presence in the state. He said on the Republican side, Mitt Romney may have suffered from the same shortcomings. “Who are they and what do they stand for? I think they failed on that.”

 

From here, he predicted that the “anti-Hillary Clinton vote” will now “coalesce around Barack Obama. That’s part of the story tonight.”

 

Democratic strategist Kirsten Powers played down the impact on Clinton Thursday, and said it was the media, not the Clinton campaign that had assumed the early primaries were to serve as nothing more than “a coronation’ for Clinton less than a year ago. But nonetheless, Powers told FOX News, being in third place was “not good for her by any stretch of the imagination.”

 

FOX News’ Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, Major Garrett and Aaron Bruns and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[GazeboflossUK]

Not a good night for Ron Paul then

 

Actually is was - because all the 'polls' and mainstream media suggested he was at 2 or 3 percent in Iowa and it turns out he went way beyond that and beat Giuliani by almost twice the votes.

 

And yet Fox News are still not allowing Ron Paul to join a upcoming debate event on Jan 6th, calling him all sorts of names - yet are still asking Giuliani who Ron Paul beat. Even ABC news changed their mind about Paul and now have him on their debate show....yet Fox News still are to exclude him. It's all because they are scared about Pauls truth message getting out further.

 

Having said this - the Iowa winner is always blown out of proportion. Fox have a vested interest in keeping Pual out and it's dirty play.

[chuck kottke]

Ron will surprise despite FAUX

 

Actually is was - because all the 'polls' and mainstream media suggested he was at 2 or 3 percent in Iowa and it turns out he went way beyond that and beat Giuliani by almost twice the votes.

 

And yet Fox News are still not allowing Ron Paul to join a upcoming debate event on Jan 6th, calling him all sorts of names - yet are still asking Giuliani who Ron Paul beat. Even ABC news changed their mind about Paul and now have him on their debate show....yet Fox News still are to exclude him. It's all because they are scared about Pauls truth message getting out further.

 

Having said this - the Iowa winner is always blown out of proportion. Fox have a vested interest in keeping Pual out and it's dirty play.

Ron Paul had been treated very rudely by FOX. But this is not lost on the American people - I think there's a decided backlash against the slash-and-burn media common to FOX, and their unfair form of infotainment. I see a lot of Paul supporters (including some cousins), and they are a very loyal and vocal group, with a clear message about how our rights have been trampled on - and given NewHampshire's independent spirit, I think he will gain surprising ground there.

I believe the voters are in general disgusted with our Congress and the President, so the anti-establishment candidates are going to have an impact! Money is, unfortunately, a big part of the results - but this should be turning people away from those who take the legal bribes the most - at least I think it will. And there's a surprise in the number of young voter - so that's a good sign!!

[chuck kottke]

I watched the Moyer's show tonight - he had Dennis Kucinich on, and I really like Dennis's honesty and candor. I tend to agree with Moyers - John Edwards is more progressive than Obama, but Kucinich has been putting his support behind Obama. When pressed for an answer, Kucinich said something, but it was lost on me. Hmm.. Maybe Obama promised him to better represent the Public this time, and not the moneyed bankers on Wall Street? I sure hope so!

I still believe in the inverse funds theory - the more they take from Corporate America, the less they will represent us!

[winigwl]

Yeah, but IOWA isn't the big deal the media make it out to be. Sure, it's the first stop on a long journey for all but it's more about TV ratings than anything else.

 

I mean Giuliani (the dirty rat he is) was the national frontrunner yet he finished 6th out of 7 on the GOP side. And Reagan didn't even win IOWA.

 

However, it is interesting to see the reactions of all the candidates.

 

Giuliani did not campaign in Iowa. He knew he wasn't going to win it. I still think he is one of the frontrunners (though i don't think he will get the nomination).

I think Obama winning Iowa is somewhat significant. Iowa is not a very black state and him winning it shows race is not an issue, as it should be.

Huckabee winning means absolutely nothing. Iowa is a religious state and clearly that favors Huckabee. When it gets down to it, i don't think he's got a shot. I hope he gets nominated though, because then the democratic nominee will win.

[Matter-Eater Lad]

I think Obama will win the nomination.

[chuck kottke]

Perhaps so - and then become President. He would be an improvement over the current occupant!

I would still prefer one of the less influenced candidates, who really stand for more substantive issues, so there's still time - anything can happen.

[Maldini]

Barack Obama 'holds clear lead' over Hillary Clinton

 

From Times Online

January 7, 2008

 

(Stephan Savoia )

Barack Obama has benefitted from a significant bounce since his victory in Iowa, polls show

 

 

Tim Reid of The Times, in Manchester, New Hampshire

 

Barack Obama has opened up a significant lead over Hillary Clinton in two new polls published a day before voters go to the polls in New Hampshire.

 

Boosted from his clear victory in Iowa on Thursday night, Mr Obama has now has surged ahead of Mrs Clinton in New Hampshire, according to the surveys published on last night.

 

A USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on Friday, has Mr Obama on 41 per cent, Mrs Clinton on 28, and John Edwards on 19. Another poll conducted by a local New Hampshire network, in conjunction with CNN, has Mr Obama 10 points ahead of Mrs Clinton. Last week, before his win in Iowa, he was six points behind Mrs Clinton in New Hampshire.

 

A significant number of New Hampshire voters are still undecided, according to the polls, but if Mr Obama follows his victory in Iowa with another clear win in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Mrs Clinton's White House hopes will be gravely endangered.

 

The new polls were published as Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton continued their argument about who can bring change to America, an argument that Mr Obama appears to be winning. But Mrs Clinton is campaigning harder than ever in a race that is far from over.

 

Mrs Clinton is telling voters in campaign events across New Hampshire that they shoud elect a "doer, not a talker". She is also criticising Mr Obama - although not by name - for his voting record during his short three-year tenure in the US Senate.

 

In comments aimed at his grandiloquent claims that he is the man to untite America and bring a decisive break from the Clinton and Bush years, Mrs Clinton said: "You campaign in poetry, you govern in prose." She also said he was offering the US false hopes.

 

Mr Obama responded: "The real gamble in this election is to do the same things, with the same folks, playing the same games over and over and over again and somehow expect a different result. That is a gamble we cannot afford, that is a risk we cannot take. Not this time. Not now. It is time to turn the page."

 

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney put in a particularly strong performance against his rivals during a Fox News debate, after slipping behind John McCain in the past month. Both men desperately need need to win New Hampshire.

 

Mr Romney is seeking to bounce back after his big loss to Mike Huckabee in Iowa, a state where Mr Romney had invested millions of dollars of his own fortune. Mr McCain, whose campaign fell apart in the summer, has fought back into contention but has banked all on victory in the Granite State.

 

The latest poll has Mr McCain opening a four-point lead over Mr McCain in New Hampshire, but last night Mr Romney put in his best debate performance of the campaign, particularly with regard to efforts to highlight his accomplishments as a successful businessman, a good message for the Republican electorate in New Hampshire where low taxes and fiscal conservatism are powerful issues.

[berrywoman]

I like Ron Paul... he says what everyone's really thinking... and puts it out there!!! he's kooky.. I like that!! If I was to vote Republican this year... I'd go with him..

 

I still haven't decided on which Dem I'm backing. I'm torn between Hillary and Obama. I will say this though.... he's a wonderful speech maker..... a lot can be said about how you handle a crowded room and perform... as for my girl Hill... she's a strong woman... but I have yet to see her move a room like Obama.

[GazeboflossUK]

I like Ron Paul... he says what everyone's really thinking... and puts it out there!!! he's kooky.. I like that!! If I was to vote Republican this year... I'd go with him..

 

I still haven't decided on which Dem I'm backing. I'm torn between Hillary and Obama. I will say this though.... he's a wonderful speech maker..... a lot can be said about how you handle a crowded room and perform... as for my girl Hill... she's a strong woman... but I have yet to see her move a room like Obama.

 

No!!!! You can't vote Dem!! hahaha. Don't do it. :laugh3:

 

Hilary and Barack are both establishment backed horses.

 

Not that the Republicans are any better.....all except Paul there are pure trash.

[GazeboflossUK]

This got me really mad and these Paul supporters show that they too are livid about the way Luntz is attempting to sway things. Who is he working for?

Plus - it's not the first time Luntz has been called on his "polling" techniques.

 

Exposure Of Fox Pollster Betrays Media Slant Against Ron Paul

Congressman's supporters confront Frank Luntz

 

Frank Luntz, a political pollster who regularly appears on Fox news' presidential race analysis and has been heavily criticized for his manipulative methods and slanted coverage, has finally been exposed for the fraud he is after it emerged that his "randomly selected" and “undecided” focus groups, that constitute the figures for his news features, are being populated by the same people months apart from each other.

 

Watch the following video for the evidence:

 

(some bad language in parts of the clip)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFL-LubDF9c

 

The same man appeared twice, four months apart, as part of Luntz's and Fox's post-GOP debate "random" focus group!

 

Luntz describes his profession as “testing language and finding words that will help his clients sell their product or turn public opinion on an issue or a candidate."

 

He has won hundreds of polls for private corporations and lobbying groups but is better known for his work with Republican politicians.

 

In a January 9, 2007, interview on Fresh Air with Terry Gross, Luntz redefined the term "Orwellian" in a positive sense, saying that if one reads Orwell's Essay On Language, "To be 'Orwellian' is to speak with absolute clarity, to be succinct, to explain what the event is, to talk about what triggers something happening…and to do so without any pejorative whatsoever."

 

He attracted a great deal of attention after the Penn and Teller piece, featured in the video above, further exposed his manipulative methods of "getting the right answers".

 

Luntz has been accused of skewing research results to reflect more favorably on specific clients. In 1997, he was reprimanded by the American Association for Public Opinion Research and in 2000 he was censured by the National Council on Public Polls.

 

Given that the Luntz's plant is first seen to be endorsing McCain and then four months later Romney, it cannot necessarily be said that Luntz is attempting to sway public opinion toward one particular GOP candidate. However, he and Fox News are undoubtedly concerned with shifting the focus away from one candidate. Ron Paul.

 

Between Fox ejecting Paul from the debate in New Hampshire just two evenings before perhaps his strongest chance of a result, and Luntz's "random" focus group singing the praises of Mitt Romney, these two artisans of fairness and balance have done a sterling job in shifting some of the focus away from a snowballing Ron Paul revolution.

 

Luntz previously attracted the attention of Ron Paul supporters after it was reported that he spent the entirety of one 'focus' group ridiculing the Congressman in front of the 29 people in attendance.

 

Last night Luntz was confronted by Paulites outside the Merrimack Restaurant, the site of his focus group, on the main street of Manchester, across the street from the Radisson Hotel where protesters also confronted Sean Hannity last night.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HJaxDt0EbY

 

The supporter who filmed the confrontation also claims he managed to infiltrate Luntz's focus group and secretly taped the whole show. Chris Brunner blasted Luntz for again allegedly making negative remarks against Ron Paul during the meeting, and has vowed to publish the video on his website.

 

Paul’s supporters had been yelling in the window and formed a constant flow of signs parading back and forth, to which Luntz responded by calling them “mean.”

 

“We’re mad because the Fourth Estate has been taken away from us,” a voice yelled out to Luntz.

 

“You are ignoring America’s savior!” shouted another.

 

As Luntz walked away he shouted “I don’t owe you guys anything."

[berrywoman]

lol well I am all for Paul.... but unfortunately I don't think he'll get nominated... :(

[winigwl]

In New Hampshire the democratic race is tight and mccain has won

[Maldini]

Clinton Defeats Obama in Primary;

McCain Takes Republican Contest

 

 

By AMY CHOZICK

January 9, 2008

NASHUA, N.H. -- After a fierce battle for the first-in-the-nation primary, New Hampshire voters chose Washington stalwarts Sen. John McCain and Sen. Hillary Clinton and their message that only decades of experience can bring about change -- the buzzword of this year's presidential race.

 

The big battle here played out in the contest for the Democratic nomination between Mrs. Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, who had soared on the momentum of his decisive win in the Iowa caucuses last week. Earlier today polls showed Mrs. Clinton trailing Mr. Obama by as many as 13 percentage points.

 

But tonight, Mrs. Clinton was handed a surprise victory with 39% of the vote compared with 36% for Mr. Obama and 17% for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

"I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I am so gratified that you responded,'' Mrs. Clinton told a cheering crowd of supporters. "Now together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."

 

When the race was called at 10:34 p.m., Clinton supporters jumped up and down, hugged each other and waved signs that said "Clinton Country." They shouted "Hillary! Hillary!" Mr. and Mrs. Clinton spent the next hour shaking hands and talking to supporters.

 

"I feel wonderful," said Clinton supporter Sue Lajoie, 60 and a retired schoolteacher who says she was worried earlier today when polls showed Mrs. Clinton trailing Mr. Obama. "I hoped people wouldn't be persuaded by all the hype for Obama," she said.

 

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, once seen as a natural to take neighboring New Hampshire, came in second with 28%, a possibly fatal blow to his bid for the presidency. Mike Huckabee, who took a surprising first-place in Iowa, struggled to connect with New Hampshire voters who tend to be less likely to accept his religious message. He finished with 12% of the vote. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani finished with 9%, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who took 8%.

 

Unseasonably warm weather along with the fierce contests boosted voter turnout to record numbers. With temperatures reaching 61 degrees at the Manchester airport today, some 500,000 voters or 48% of the total voting age population cast ballots, compared with 44.4% in 2004 and 29.9% in 2000. Some 280,000 voters cast Democratic ballots and 220,000 voted in the Republican contest.

 

The mild weather could have helped Mrs. Clinton, who gets strong support among older female voters who might be reluctant to take the trip to their polling places in stormy weather.

 

With no incumbent on the ballot, the open field has energized voters here, where particular attention has been paid to the state's independent voters, who make up about 45% of the electorate. An independent can vote either as a Republican or Democrat.

 

Exit polls showed independent voters broke towards the Democrats, attracted to Mr. Obama's message of breaking the status quo in Washington. Altogether, 46% of Mr. Obama's support came from independent voters. An early sign that independent voters were trending Democratic came this morning as the New Hampshire Secretary of State's office dispatched additional ballots -- mostly Democratic ballots -- to a half dozen towns across the state.

 

"I've never seen this many people voting in the primary," said Ken Fanjoy, a 53-year-old union worker from Seabrook who backed Mrs. Clinton.

 

With the theme of the presidential race focused on change, all the leading candidates in both parties invoked the word on the campaign trail, in their ads and in their attacks. The word "change" popped up some 130 times during the back-to-back ABC News-Facebook debates that aired nationwide Saturday night.

 

While the Republicans and Democrats are far apart on nearly all of the issues, the political dynamic in both fields has shaped up to be strikingly similar here in their rhetoric on change. Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney offered similar arguments that they aren't part of the Washington machine, and as outsiders can bring about the most fundamental change. Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton similarly countered that change can only be brought by an experienced hand.

 

But rivals had criticized Mrs. Clinton's and Mr. McCain's messages and their ability to bring about real change. During the Democratic debate on Saturday, Mr. Edwards referred to Mrs. Clinton as "the status quo."

 

The third leading Democrat, Mr. Edwards, campaigned hard in New Hampshire, but couldn't edge out Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama. Mr. Edwards entered New Hampshire weakened by his second-place finish in Iowa, where he had focused nearly all of his time and money. At 10:20 p.m. EST before the Democratic race had been called, Mr. Edwards congratulated Mrs. Clinton.

 

Following her third-place finish in Iowa, Mrs. Clinton has heavily focused on her theme that change only comes with her "35 years of experience." "When did experience be come a liability?" a frustrated Mrs. Clinton said on the stump Monday.

 

Mrs. Clinton also tried to better reach out to younger voters, many of whom have been supporting Mr. Obama. She changed some of her campaign music and brought her 27-year-old daughter Chelsea on the campaign trail. People close to the Clinton campaign have said that if Mrs. Clinton didn't win, a management reshuffling could be expected.

 

Mrs. Clinton also had a much-publicized moment Monday when she choked up at an event in Portsmouth after an undecided voter asked how she balances her life on the trail. "It's about our country, it's about our kids' futures, it's really about all of us together," she said, tears welling in her eyes.

 

While Clinton detractors suggested the moment could further damage her prospects here, for some voters it showed a more human side of the former first lady that may have made her more likeable, particularly with women. Mrs. Clinton captured nearly 50% of the female vote, a sharp increase from the Iowa results where younger women largely opted for Mr. Obama.

 

Showing her more sensitive side certainly played well with voters like Dolores Felch, 53-years-old of Seabrook. "I voted for Hillary Clinton. I was with Edwards last night when he was making fun of her emotional thing…he's a jerk," Ms. Felch said. "I don't like Obama, he's just a talker."

 

The Clinton campaign also sharpened its attacks on Mr. Obama's inexperience in recent days. On Sunday senior Clinton campaign officials held a much-publicized conference call with reporters to assert that the Obama campaign had violated New Hampshire law by sending prerecorded political messages to voters on a do-not-call list.

 

"Our disclaimer absolutely complies with the federal law, and our vendor has assured us that he scrubbed the list for people on the do-not-call registry," said Ned Helms, state co-chairman of the Obama campaign.

 

Today former President Bill Clinton critiqued Mr. Obama's record while stumping for his wife throughout the state, calling Mr. Obama's candidacy "the biggest fairy tale I have ever seen."

 

In the end, it was Mr. Obama's lack of experience that made many voters opt for the more seasoned Mrs. Clinton. "I like him and I think he'll be ready in eight years," said Allison Mundry, a 49-year-old real estate agent in Salem. But for now, she says "We have to vote for someone who can get the Republicans out of office.

 

The Illinois Senator will go on to South Carolina where half of all registered Democrats are African-American and could choose Mr. Obama, the first serious candidate to have a chance at the White House.

 

The state's independent streak boded well for Mr. Obama, who had the most momentum heading into the primary following his decisive eight-point victory in Iowa. His campaign has stressed throughout the race that Mr. Obama is the candidate with the most cross-over appeal among Republican and right-leaning voters.

 

But many New Hampshire voters saw Mr. Obama as an inspirational speaker with little policy to back up his message of change. "I don't understand the Obama bandwagon at all," said Marianne Rork, 54 and a physical therapist in

Londonderry. "He can rally a crowd, but he's not giving any details."

 

For Mr. McCain, New Hampshire was widely viewed as a make-or-break state. He has invested nearly all of his limited resources in New Hampshire, which he won in his 2000 bid against George W. Bush.

 

When the results came in at 8 p.m. EST, supporters at the McCain party at a Nashua hotel began chanting "Mac is Back! Mac is Back!"

 

"The lesson here and in Iowa is that negative ads don't work," said Matt Marchese, a McCain volunteer from nearby Massachusetts. "They worked in the past, but they turned into a huge Achillies' heal for Mitt Romney."

 

Bill Starner, from Windham, a McCain booster going back to the 2000 election said the expectant victory was especially satisfying after the campaign was "resurrected" last summer. "He got the mojo back," he said.

 

Victor Goulet, Mr. McCain's campaign chairman for Manchester, declared: "It's time to celebrate again." He attributed Mr. McCain's comeback to a strategy shift last summer that emphasized small events with voters.

 

Mr. McCain appeared energized by his comeback victory. "My friends, you know, I'm passed the age when I can claim the noun 'kid ' no matter what adjective precedes it. But tonight, we showed them what a comeback looks like."

 

He credited his signature blunt honesty for today's win. And in a dig at Mr. Romney, who rivals have accused him of shifting positions, Mr. McCain said, "I didn't tell you what the polls said you wanted to hear. I didn't tell you what I knew to be false. I didn't try to spin you."

 

He also made a nod to his own combative style, which appeals to independent-minded New Hampshire voters, but has failed in the past to ignite the national electorate. "I reasoned with you. I listened to you I answered you. Sometimes I argued with you. But I always told you the truth as best as I can see the truth and you did me the great honor of listening," he said.

 

The 71-year-old senator, who maintains one of the most packed schedules of any candidate, will leave New Hampshire early Wednesday morning. "We celebrate one victory tonight, and leave for Michigan tomorrow to win another."

 

Mr. Romney has seen his inevitability factor fade after a second-place finish in Iowa, despite spending heavily -- both dollars and time -- in the state. After that defeat, Mr. Romney pivoted, casting himself as a Washington outsider committed to change. That theme permeated a two-minute television ad that aired throughout the state Monday evening. Mr. Romney has also sought to lower expectations, saying this morning only that he expects a close race. "If I got two votes I wouldn't say 'Oh, let's go on to the next.' There's no reason to do that. But I'm in a position where I'm in a very tight race," he said.

 

Mr. Romney fashioned his concession speech after the remarks he delivered less than a week ago in Iowa. He used the same Olympics medal analogy, saying he had "two silvers and one gold" – the gold being the little-watched caucus he won over the weekend in Wyoming. Although handed two definitive defeats, Mr. Romney vowed to continue competing. "I'll fight to be back here in November," he said.

 

And while the speech in New Hampshire borrowed from his Iowa remarks, the former governor was more composed the second time around, perhaps because the defeat was more expected. He congratulated Mr. McCain both over the phone and to the crammed ballroom here. "Congratulations on the gold, senator. Great job," he said.

 

Yet the Mr. McCain victory casts some doubt on Mr. Romney's message. For the five days between the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, Mr. Romney harped on the need to "clean up Washington." He repeatedly cited the performance of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain in Iowa as proof that voters reject Beltway insiders. Yet both candidates performed strongly Tuesday night, forcing the Romney campaign to rejigger their message yet again. "With John McCain, we're essentially running against an incumbent. He does have those institutional advantages," said spokesman Kevin Madden.

 

While former Arkansas Republican Gov. Huckabee handily won the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, New Hampshire has a markedly different electorate. Iowa is home to a considerable bloc of conservative and evangelical voters, who heavily favored Mr. Huckabee.

 

Mr. Huckabee's brand of social conservatism didn't resonate as much in New Hampshire, but he nonetheless painted his distant third place finish as a victory, saying he did better than anyone thought "this old unknown Southern boy could possibly do in new England."

 

He promised to keep his message upbeat and positive as his campaign moves on to South Carolina, where a larger evangelical community gives him better odds in the Jan. 19 Republican primary. "We really need to take America up and not down and that's what we're going to continue to do," he told cheering supporters at a country club in Manchester.

 

The campaign travels to South Carolina in the morning and then onto Michigan on Friday, where he plans an address to the Detroit Economic Club.

 

"We're going to be able to secure this nomination," Huckabee said optimistically, "then on to the White House and on to leading America."

--Elizabeth Holmes, Brody Mullins and Amy Schatz contributed to this article.

[Maldini]

New Hampshire

Democratic Party

1-Hillary Clinton: 39%

2-Barack Obama: 36%

3-John Edwards: 17%

Republican Party

1-John McCain: 37%

2-Mitt Romney: 32%

3-Mike Huckabee: 11%

[GazeboflossUK]

Major allegations of vote fraud in New Hampshire are circulating after Hillary Clinton reversed that mammoth pre-polling deficit to defeat Barack Obama with the aid of Diebold electronic voting machines.

While there are other cases of confirmed votes for Ron Paul in the Sutton district that were not even counted.

 

I'm sure this will not be the last we here of this....