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Angela Merkel celebrates after German election


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Angela Merkel celebrates after German election


Angela Merkel has urged her party to celebrate "a super result" after exit polls suggested she was set to win a third term as German chancellor.


Her conservatives took about 42% of the vote, the polls said. TV projections said that might almost be enough for a historic absolute majority.


Otherwise Mrs Merkel might have to seek a grand coalition with the Social Democrats - estimated to have won 26%.


Her preferred liberal partners appear not to have made it into parliament. Exit polls for ARD public television put the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) on 4.7%, which if confirmed would be a disaster for the junior coalition partner, leaving it with no national representation in parliament.


Party chairman Philipp Roesler called it "the bitterest, saddest hour of the Free Democratic Party".


The FDP was beaten by the Green Party (8%) and the former communist Left Party (8.5%), and even, according to exit polls, the new Alternative fuer Deutschland, which advocates withdrawal from the euro currency and took 4.9%, just short of the parliamentary threshold.


There was some speculation on German television that Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister CSU might even win enough seats for an absolute majority - the first in half a century - if both the FDP and AfD fail to make it into parliament.


The ARD channel's projection had her group winning 297 seats against 301 for the other three parties, while ZDF had her dead even with the other three.



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^Yep, she is a strong leader.


SPD could lead a government consisting of SPD, the Left Party (die Linke) and the Green Party (die Grüne), but probably SPD will not do so.


So interesting whether Merkel will choose SPD or the Green Party as coalition partner.


Final percentage of the vote:


CDU bloc: 41.5%

SPD: 26%

FDP: 4.8%

Left Party: 8.6%

Green: 8.4%

AfD: 4.7%

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Well, the Left Party consists of former communists from East Germany and of people who left the Social Democratic Party in protest because they did not like the politics conducted by their party any more - such as cuts in social benefits. Instead they formed the Left party.


So bad vibrations from the past means that SPD will not form a government with the Left party (die Linke). If SPD, the Left and the Green parties having won 43% of the votes formed a government, these 3 parties (+ the government) would hold the majority of the seats in the German parliament.


CDU (with chancellor Angela Merkel) won 41,5% of the votes and her party has won almost half of all seats (I think 311, where 316 would be the magic number to have the majority). But not having won the majority she has to find a coalition partner as there is no tradition in Germany for a government staying in power with the support of varying parties - in one issue support from one party, in another issue support from another party.


Thus: Either CDU + the Green Party OR CDU + SPD.


From 2005-2009 the government consisted of CDU + SPD. From 2009 to 2013: CDU + FDP. From 2013: CDU + ? .


Trouble is that CDU managed to win the next election while the coalition partner lost a lot of voters. When SPD was coalition partner for CDU from 2005 to 2009, SPD lost a lot (from being almost just as big to a much smaller party) - and FDP (the social-liberal party that did not get 5% of the votes and thus had to leave the Parliament and therefore also the government) fell from almost 15% to less than 5%. So history could scare a party from wanting to be a junior coalition partner.


So SPD is in trouble: Accept the position as a minor partner to CDU & Angela Merkel (with the risk mentioned above) OR to form a government consisting of SPD + The Left party + the Green party (during the election campaign the party said that a government consisting of these 3 parties were not an issue - so if doing so anyhow, SPD would immediately do the opposite of what the party said / promised during the campaign).


So most likely is a government consisting of: CDU with SPD as junior partner OR CDU with the Green party.

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^Maybe - in that case it will be for the first time (since the Weimar Republic at least) that this happens. It has been CDU alone under Adenauer (the first chancellor after the second world war), then Ludwig Erhard (the one known for the German "Wirtschaftswunder"), then CDU + SPD (Kiesinger), then SPD (maybe alone for one period, not sure under Willy Brandt who at one election won 43 - or was it 46 - % of the votes, then I remember SPD (Willy Brandt) + FDP (Dieter Genscher) before FDP chose to leave that coalition for CDU as partner, then CDU (Helmuth Kohl) + FDP (Genscher) for many years - Kohl was chancellor for 16 years from 1982 to 1998, then SPD (Gerhard Schröder) alone, then CDU (Angela Merkel) + SPD (with Steinbruck as finance minister) in a grand coation (from 2005-2009), then CDU (Merkel) chose FDP as partner so SPD + FDP (from 2009 to now) and then ? (time will show).

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